Objective Method for Determining the Importance of Unprecedented Restlessness as a Rice Crisis Indicator at the National Level

In this study, we use restlessness as an input for a rice crisis indicator, since rather than price provides comparable year-to year context. We outline the significant increase in of unprecedented (UR) indicator crises. The UR approach involves precedence analysis, contrast with existing approach, shock analysis. test new crises at national level, which can be applied Asia and other countries around world where is staple food. Strong indicators point out effectiveness strategic government programs are able to assess solutions detect crises, while weak only reliable detecting whether or not there has been crisis. tested across 43 using two statistics: success probability (SP) constraint (CP). As consequence SP CP calculations, large number IMR control charts analysis constructed provide evidence that strong indicator. optimum validity measurement result achieved = 8/26 0.31 8/14 0.57. This means detects followed by 31% riot events. Since value less 0.6, conclude considered valid level. values determined subjectively equal 0.6. main cause emergence problems calibration subjective criteria trigger question regarding why no scientific justification. Based on background, continue objectively establish validity. After conducting risk involving recovery cost (CRC) anticipation (CAC) ratio, it found CRC-to-CAC ratio having greater 7 0.76, tends higher 7. Objectively, concluded UR, defined important